I recently hosted a “We Are AW” free online webinar where I presented a probabilistic approach to modeling and forecasting feature delivery though an ART/Tribe using Monte Carlo simulations as the main tool. The webinar presents the reasoning and assumptions behind using such an approach as well as showing how to use the model in a simple XLS-tool that you also can download and use to forecast from you own throughput data.
The webinar recording is available here:
The slides from the presentation can be found here: https://bit.ly/2KLqq6E
The XLS model from the presentation can be downloaded here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NITGWlxlRJ7cTLU5JtRV5O2TFLD9rELI2VnTNaUgK3Q/edit?usp=sharing